Grande expectativa com a Terceira Sessão Plenária do 18º Comitê Central do Partido Comunista Chinês

Leia a seguir interessante artigo do Global Times, da China:
Hopes run high for historic meet: Link: http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/823575.shtml#.Un6n2_mc8Z4

"The 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will convene Saturday in Beijing for a key meeting which is expected to lay out a blueprint for China's reform in the next decade.

The four-day Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee will have participants review draft decisions on major issues. The incumbent CPC Central Committee's nearly 380 members and alternate members will attend the meeting.

The third plenary session comes a year after China completed its once-in-a-decade leadership transition. Such a plenum after the transition often serves as a critical juncture for pushing reform and opening-up.

Reuters commented that the plenum is a more important event for the world economy and for global geopolitics than the budget battles, central bank meetings and elections that attract much more attention in the media and financial markets.

In the run-up to the plenum, top Chinese leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly vowed that reform will be carried out using an all-around approach.

An editorial published Friday in the People's Daily, a publication of the CPC Central Committee, said China's economy is in urgent need of sustainable development, its society in desperate need of solution to outstanding conflicts, and people yearn for fairness and justice.

"None of these can be done without deepening reform," said the editorial. "The reform is shifting from addressing specific economic issues to being intertwined with socioeconomic conflicts, and it is now expanding from the economic system to comprehensive reforms to the nation's economic, political, cultural, social and ecological systems."

Wang Qinwei, a China economist with London-based Capital Economics, told the Global Times, "Just 10 or 20 years ago, China pushed reform in the fashion of 'crossing the river by feeling the stones,'" he said, referring to a Chinese proverb which indicates a cautious approach to experimentation. "However, in the current situation, reforms in certain areas can hardly be pushed forward alone. It needs compatible reforms on other fronts to move ahead under a comprehensive framework."

The anticipated measures include reforms to income distribution, social security, rural land ownership and systems of administration to unleash growth potential.

Derek M. Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote on The National Interest journal that China is not anywhere close to becoming the world's leading technological power.

However, Scissors said "another decade or two of true market reform could make China a competitor of the US at the high end, over the next breakthroughs in telecom, biotechnology and energy."

Experts agree China's reform process has entered unchartered territory.

"With the low-hanging reform fruits having mostly been picked, the new leaders have to confront more protracted problems, such as the need for reform of the social security system, land ownership and the SOE sector, under a more complicated social and economic environment," Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist at Barclays, said in a research note sent to the Global Times earlier this month.

Compared with the Third Plenum of the 11th CPC Central Committee convened in 1978, the diversification of social groups over the past 35 years has made it more difficult to forge a consensus on the path of reform, Jiang Yong, a research fellow with the Beijing-based National Strategic Research Center, told the Global Times.

"The 18th National Congress of the CPC held in 2012 set the tone for the mid- and long-term path for China, so we can expect a continuation of those policies," Jiang said.

In another article in the People's Daily, the CPC's Party History Research Center said to those who "preach the indiscriminate copying of the Western system" that the Party will "uphold its leadership."

"Given the potential for social instability, it is only realistic to expect that most reforms will involve gradual steps, rather than a rapid overhaul of the current system," Chang noted."


Comentário:

Está claro que o sentido das reformas a serem anunciadas indica para uma maior liberalização da economia. No entanto, diante de tensões sociais criadas pelo rápido crescimento, como o aumento da desigualdade de renda, a falta de direitos sociais para os trabalhadores migrantes e ainda a insegurança dos camponeses frente a eventuais desapropriações de terras, levarão o Comitê Central do PCCh a dosar o processo de maior abertura com ampliação dos direitos sociais.

Sou testemunha de que como o rumo da nova rodada de reformas não é consenso na sociedade chinesa. Em reunião realizada no Instituto de Estudos Latino-americanos da Academia Chinesa de Ciências Sociais, em 11 e 12 de outubro de 2013, pudemos verificar como o debate intelectual é bastante difuso. Enquanto um grupo de acadêmicos defendia a mercantilização da posse da terra, conferindo títulos de propriedade aos camponeses, ou defendendo a adoção de um modelo previdenciário similar ao chileno, outro se levantava contra este processo advertindo sobre os perigos decorrentes da especulação com as terras por parte de indivíduos e governos locais e pelo risco de uma ocidentalização sem controle social.

Os resultados dessa reunião são aguardados com ansiedade nos principais centros decisores do mundo. Terça-feira nossa ansiedade acaba.